Welcome to Hurricane Season 2017! From June 1 to November 30, we celebrate our favorite surfing season! We had a quick start last year, a long summer lull, then an encore finish with a very close call! This year is already looking to kick off quickly, as we are monitoring a system in the Gulf, and the percentages early in the season are always higher than any other region until we see an Atlantic shift after July. Most of the weather authorities are predicting 14 or more named storms this year, and with a very short-lived winter in the South this year, things are heating up quickly! With a scare from Matthew last year on the First Coast, now is the time to get your hurricane prep kit ready ahead of time, because you never know … What we always hope for is some saw blades offshore that will pump some nice swells our way! Here are some quick predictions for the season:
- Colorado State University expects 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes this season.
- NOAA expects 11 to 17 named storms this season, more than the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.
- The Weather Company predicts 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes this season.
- Warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the reduced likelihood of El Niño’s development are among the factors taken into account.
Currently remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Beatriz flaring pockets of moisture into the Gulf are being driven by a low-pressure system slowly moving across Texas and an early summer dip in the jet stream. Gulf development usually happens quickly, and weather we have our first named storm or not, the system is likely to bring heavy rains and flooding throughout the southeast over the next week! It might be time to head to your favorite mysto Gulf break soon!
At home right now, we’ve pretty much been in the middle of flat season right now, some small waves here and there on any given day at the right tide for the logging equipment, and some waves for surf camps! We will see a little nor’east activity move in tomorrow, and the waves will be in the knee-to-thigh-high range, but once the southwest flow from the Gulf starts kicking in this week it will get pretty flat until we see a bigger pulse of nor’east action come Thursday with the next passing system! Until then, we will continue to monitor the developments in the Gulf, and now is a great time to get out to your favorite local surf shops to get some good gear for Father’s Day!
2017 Hurricane Names:
WIND: light NE winds in AM less than 5 increasing to 5-10 in PM
WIND: NE winds 5-10+ all day
WIND: SW winds 5-10+ all day
WIND: WSW winds 5-10+ all day
WIND: W to WNW winds in AM 5-10 turning NNE 5-10+ in PM
WIND: NE winds 10-15+ all day
WIND: ENE winds 5-10+ all day