What a crazy week of waves and weather! First Julia turned into a freak of a one hit wonder storm, now we have a nice little Nor’easter kicking in, Tropical Storm Julia reforming and Karl is churning up in the Atlantic! Waves, football, nice weather, mega moon tides.. Oh my! To make it even better the Jags have a late game on Sunday away so more reason to get out the surfboards and play!
Tropical Storm Julia is wobbling off of our coast and we’re currently seeing some fun chunky waist to chest plus waves the last couple of days! It will drop off a little tomorrow, but the wind will lighten up a bit! Harvest Moon tides are in full effect, so be mindful of rips as this will be one of the biggest tides of the year! On the negative low incoming side of the tide it could get good at select breaks! Go Jags!
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Karl is maintaining the status quo with its center at least 120 n mi to the southwest of the deep convection. Since the ASCAT pass from last evening showed a sizable area of 35-40 kt winds, and the Dvorak estimates have been steady, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Karl is located just to the south of an upper-level low, and the resultant westerly shear should gradually relax and change direction during the next few days once Karl moves away from this feature. Sea surface temperatures will be steadily increasing along Karl's forecast path, and mid-tropospheric moisture may begin to increase after 48 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for little change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by steady strengthening from day 3 to day 5. This forecast closely follows an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models and still allows for the possibility of Karl becoming a hurricane by day 5. There is no doubt that the center of Karl has been losing latitude during the past 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to continue pushing Karl south of due west during the next 36 hours. After that time, Karl will begin to approach a weakness in the ridge located over the western Atlantic, and the tropical cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward on days 3-5 well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Although there is some uncertainty on how far south Karl will get before it turns west-northwestward, the spread among the track models is actually quite small. The updated NHC track forecast essentially lies along the TVCN multi-model consensus line, which ends up being a little south and west of the previous forecast.
WIND: NNE winds 10-15+ all day
WIND: NE winds 5-10 all day
WIND: light W to NW winds less than 5 in AM turning NE then SE late in day 5-10
WIND: NE winds less than 5 in AM increasing to 5-10 in PM
WIND: light NW winds in AM less than 5 turning NE 5-10 in PM
WIND: winds E 5-10 all day
SWELL: E to ENE
WIND: E winds 5-10 all day